Brexit – hard facts, impacts & mass hysteria
Brexit – what’s it mean to you?
The history of the world has returned to Europe. The voting population of the United Kingdom has decided that the UK should leave the EU. The impact is psychological and practical. But, what does Britexit mean to you?
Start with the facts
Throughout June 23, 2016 citizens of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland held elections. 51.89% voted to leave the EU. While Scotland and Northern Ireland voted solidly to remain in the European Union, all of England, except areas surrounding London, voted to exit.
On June 24th, the U.S. NYSE fell 511.57 points. London’s FTSE 250 lost 7.3% of its value and talked merger with the Deutsche Boerse. And, the British pound dropped to the lowest level against the USD in 31 years.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned, but London has a process for resignation and replacement that will take months into the fall. The process means to stabilize any volatility and to enable a reasoned selection of his replacement.
The psychological impact
Brexit is a momentous event. It will dominate geo-political headlines for some time. Pundits will have a field day. The EU cannot survive without its presence, and some countries will follow them out the door. Any continuity depends on the leadership of Berlin and Brussels. What they can salvage out of territory vacated by Sweden, Denmark, and others remains to be seen.
The European Union was a noble experiment to resolve centuries old border disputes, help trade and travel, and recognize the globalization of European interests. With the introduction of the Euro, borders disappeared and relations strengthened.
Those language and cultural differences have never fully surrendered. And, xenophobia becomes a logical response as high-volume immigration extinguishes those voices. Ironically, the tsunami of Muslim immigration has succeeded too well in reclaiming the Ottoman Bridge back to central Europe. Even withdrawal from the EU does not alter the fact that the character of all Europe has changed.
So, if English voters believe they have restored the Scepter Isle to its vainglorious days, they remain dreadfully and irresponsibly naive.
Here are some questions you should ask yourself before going crazy about the latest happenings:
How much can we say about future impacts of events like Brexit based on what we think we know? How much mass and media hysteria is involved?
In the end, there is only one thing that is 100% sure: it’s the given fact that not one single person or institution knows how Brexit and comparably big events affect the future in terms of economy etc. All we can do is make assumptions based on the current circumstances or the past, but how representative are these assumptions regarding to the future? No one knows, so be aware of the fact that we do not have all capacity to make a valid prediction. Because if we had all capacity to make valid future predictions, we would live in a world full of peace, flowers and unicorns everywhere, but we don’t.
So how do we find out about the real future impact? Simple, wait ’till future arrives and you will see. Meanwhile, all you can do is dealing with presence, changing and steering your own thoughts and trying not to get infected by mass hysteria like 95% of all the other apes on this planet. That’s the way to constantly be a little ahead for yourself.
The practical impact
The Britexit fallout offers a welcome distraction from the media obsession with Clinton vs. Trump. Britain has its own Trump in London’s former mayor Boris Johnson who will replace David Cameron only if the Tory Party completely loses its mind, sense of decorum, and obligation to its nation.
U.S. popular economist Ben Stein urges American investors to stay the course because “Brexit doesn’t have much to do with U.S.” His point is that trade between England and the U.S. accounts for less than 10% of the U.S. GDP. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, import/export trade amounts to about $18 million, an amount not likely to cripple the U.S. economy.
U.S. investment traders make money on both the buy and sell of stocks. Market volatility is very much in their interest which does not extend to geo-political concerns. So, the U.S. markets will ride out any volatility. Traders and investors have the weekend to think it over, and even the significant NYSE losses on June 24th only finished an otherwise successful week in the same market.
U.S. and U.K. foreign and trade relationships will continue. Still, the shape and position of NATO should undergo review that is well overdue in light of Putin’s aggression. The jingoism that brutalizes immigrants and feeds the ignorant of many a nation has an energy that needs management and redirection towards constructive nation building in a new demographic world.
England believes its own story. It remains a legend in its own mythology. Its true history belies its vaunted nobility. Chaucer, Shakespeare, and others have regularly undercut the legends of once and future kings. It has been ruled by murderous, incestuous, and self-serving royals and has spent half of its history in warfare and imperialism. Outside the banking and insurance centers in London and the rarefied world of Oxford/Cambridge, England is a working class population. Once underserved by the Conservative government of Margaret Thatcher, it will suffer again.
What’s it mean to you?
Brexit means little to the average American, now or in the future. Impact on the average continental European will vary and last long. Impact on the average Briton will hurt and last. A nation cannot enter and exit the EU without significant damage to the whole. That would be an assumption that’s interesting to follow up. It’s up to nations with a common interest, evolving towards an unclear end, to define a new Europe.